DIGITAL NEWS GURU POLITICAL DESK:
Haryana Exit Poll 2024: Congress Poised for a Major Comeback, BJP Faces Major Setback
The 2024 Haryana Assembly elections have taken a surprising turn, with exit polls pointing toward a decisive victory for the Congress party.
The latest exit polls released on October 6, 2024, suggest that the Congress is on track to reclaim power in the state after a decade, displacing the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This significant projection marks a potential political shift in Haryana, a state that has been a BJP stronghold for the past two terms.
Exit Poll Projections
Multiple exit polls, including those from Republic P-Marq and Matrize, show a clear lead for the Congress. According to these projections, the Congress is expected to secure between 50 to 61 seats in the 90-seat Haryana Legislative Assembly, crossing the majority threshold of 46 seats. This would represent a substantial gain from the party’s performance in the 2019 elections, where it won only 31 seats.
The ruling BJP, which has governed Haryana since 2014, is projected to fall short, with estimates placing their tally at 20 to 28 seats. This is a sharp decline from the 40 seats they won in the previous assembly. The Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), which had formed a post-poll alliance with the BJP in 2019, is expected to secure only a handful of seats, ranging from 1 to 3, according to most polls.
This diminished role for the JJP could signal dissatisfaction with the coalition government’s performance over the past five years.
Factors Behind the Congress Surge
The Congress’ strong performance in the exit polls can be attributed to several factors. At the heart of the party’s resurgence is Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the two-time former Chief Minister of Haryana. Hooda has been instrumental in leading the Congress campaign, focusing on issues that resonate with the electorate, such as farmers’ concerns, unemployment, and inflation. His appeal to rural voters, particularly in the agrarian belt, seems to have worked in the Congress’ favor, as many voters expressed dissatisfaction with the ruling BJP’s handling of farmer issues, particularly in light of the 2020-2021 farmers’ protests.
The BJP’s declining popularity can also be linked to economic challenges in the state. Haryana has struggled with rising unemployment rates, with youth unemployment being a major issue. The BJP’s promises of economic growth and job creation have not materialized to the extent that many voters had hoped for, leading to a shift in sentiment against the incumbent government.
Furthermore, the Congress made women’s safety a key part of its campaign, an issue that has gained prominence in Haryana in recent years due to rising crime rates. The party promised stricter law enforcement and more comprehensive safety measures for women, which appears to have resonated with voters, particularly in urban areas.
Impact of Farmers’ Protests
The legacy of the farmers’ protests against the three controversial farm laws enacted by the BJP-led central government has continued to influence voting patterns in Haryana. The state, which has a large agricultural community, was one of the epicenters of the protests. Although the laws were eventually repealed, the protests left a lasting impact on the political landscape of Haryana. Farmers, a significant voter base in the state, have expressed dissatisfaction with the BJP for its initial support of the laws, and this discontent seems to have played a major role in swinging the vote towards the Congress.
The Congress capitalized on this sentiment by promising better support for farmers, including higher minimum support prices (MSPs), loan waivers, and increased subsidies for agricultural inputs. These promises appear to have swayed a significant portion of the rural electorate, which felt alienated by the BJP’s policies during the protests.
BJP’s Setback and Strategic Missteps
The BJP’s fall in the exit polls can be attributed to a combination of governance challenges, public dissatisfaction, and internal party dynamics. Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar, who led the BJP’s campaign, faced criticism for his administration’s handling of various issues, particularly the farmers’ protests and unemployment. While Khattar is considered a steady administrator, he lacked the charisma and political mass appeal needed to retain a majority in the current political climate.
Additionally, the BJP faced challenges in ally management. The JJP, a key partner in the BJP-led coalition, has seen its influence wane, with the exit polls predicting a much-reduced role for the party. Many voters viewed the alliance as opportunistic, and the JJP’s failure to deliver on key promises made during the 2019 elections likely contributed to its diminished performance.
National Implications
The exit poll results in Haryana could have significant implications beyond the state level. Haryana is a politically important state in northern India, and a Congress victory here could boost the party’s morale ahead of the 2024 General Elections. For the BJP, a loss in Haryana would be a setback, especially as it seeks to maintain its dominance at the national level.
Moreover, the Haryana exit polls are seen as a barometer for the Modi government’s popularity in rural areas, especially in the context of issues like unemployment and agricultural distress. If the exit polls are accurate, the BJP may need to rethink its strategy in rural regions across the country, as similar concerns could impact its performance in other states.
Conclusion
While exit polls are not always entirely accurate, the 2024 Haryana exit polls indicate a significant shift in voter sentiment, with the Congress positioned to make a dramatic comeback. The BJP, facing discontent over economic issues and its handling of farmer protests, appears to be losing ground in the state. If the final results, which will be declared on October 8, 2024, align with these projections, it would mark a major political realignment in Haryana, setting the stage for new leadership in the state and potentially influencing the national political landscape as well.
YOU MAY ALSO READ: Arvind Kejriwal to leave CM residence today, Lutyens’ Delhi’s Bungalow No. 5 will be his new address
